Long Term Plan? (merged threads)

[Ced67]

Nate, I would love to pick up Hinrich if possible but I just don't see why Chicago would do it. It seems like they would just be picking up a less athletic version of Deng but with a bigger contract, I think if they wanted to trade Hinrich it would eventually be for a big man, or at least for expiring contracts maybe in hope of going after Amare in 2010. I guess the reason I sent Jamison to GS was because he fits in perfectly at the 4 in their system and with Stephen Jackson reportedly saying he wanted a trade, it seemed like the perfect match for both the Wizards and Warriors. I just don't see a lot of other teams putting much value in Jamison given his age and defensive struggles. Also, I had Butler at the 2 for defensive purposes, the secondary ball handler would be Jackson, I heard he was running the point for a while for the Warriors this year. And for the Arenas, Bosh trade, I really had that more as an offseason trade with Gil coming back sometime after the All Star break, I doubt if he comes back and plays significant time before the trade deadline.

[JWizmentality]

Tankscott:"Coaching is hard as ****! I don't understand. I graduated with top honors from Eddie Jordan's School of Coaching."

When does the new coach start?

[LyricalRico]

Ced67, that's an interesting plan. I'd definitely go for the Arenas for Bosh part. Arenas would have to come back and play well before the Trade Deadline for Toronto to consider it though. But you make a good point that Arenas is a star that will put butts in seats. I think Toronto would need to follow up by sending Calderon somewhere for a SG or SF, but that's not our concern.

I'm not opposed to trading Jamison for Jackson, but you're forced to jump through hoops to make it happen because the contracts don't match. I don't like the idea of giving up Young when the team we're left with has so few decent guards as it is. (Butler isn't a good enough ball handler to play guard for an extended period of time without a true PG with him.)

Well, let's combine both deals...

Wizards trade: Arenas, Jamison, and Blatche
Wizards receive: Bosh, Calderon, Graham, and Randolph

Raptors trade: Bosh, Calderon, and Graham
Raptors receive: Arenas, Blatche, and Jackson

Warriors trade: Jackson and Randolph
Warriors receive: Jamison

TRADE ID 4888181

Haywood/McGee
Bosh/Songaila
Butler/Randolph
Young/Stevenson
Calderon/James

Young will have to learn to be a catch-and-shoot player but that's a freaking stacked lineup. As long as Bosh signs an extension we're good for the foreseeable future. And that doesn't even include our lottery pick!

[Wizardspride]

There's no way I'm trading Gil. Unless we're talking about a deal involving Kobe,Lebron or Dwight.

But definitely not for Chris Bosh (who I do like as a player).

[Wizards2Lottery]

Chris Bosh is a G. We would be stupid not to trade Arenas for him. Getting Calderon along with him would be robbery.

[hands11]

Ced67, that's an interesting plan. I'd definitely go for the Arenas for Bosh part. Arenas would have to come back and play well before the Trade Deadline for Toronto to consider it though. But you make a good point that Arenas is a star that will put butts in seats. I think Toronto would need to follow up by sending Calderon somewhere for a SG or SF, but that's not our concern.

I'm not opposed to trading Jamison for Jackson, but you're forced to jump through hoops to make it happen because the contracts don't match. I don't like the idea of giving up Young when the team we're left with has so few decent guards as it is. (Butler isn't a good enough ball handler to play guard for an extended period of time without a true PG with him.)

Well, let's combine both deals...

Wizards trade: Arenas, Jamison, and Blatche
Wizards receive: Bosh, Calderon, Graham, and Randolph

Raptors trade: Bosh, Calderon, and Graham
Raptors receive: Arenas, Blatche, and Jackson

Warriors trade: Jackson and Randolph
Warriors receive: Jamison

TRADE ID 4888181

Haywood/McGee
Bosh/Songaila
Butler/Randolph
Young/Stevenson
Calderon/James

Young will have to learn to be a catch-and-shoot player but that's a freaking stacked lineup. As long as Bosh signs an extension we're good for the foreseeable future. And that doesn't even include our lottery pick!

I like it. Phone EG.

[Silvie Lysandra]

bosh is a #2 option forced to be a #1

arenas when healthy is a #1 option

unless i was reasonably sure that arenas would never be 100% again, no dice

[Wizardspride]

bosh is a #2 option forced to be a #1

arenas when healthy is a #1 option

unless i was reasonably sure that arenas would never be 100% again, no dice

That's how I see it as well.

[ZonkertheBrainless]

I think assuming Arenas is permanently damaged goods now is a pretty good bet, considering he's had three knee surgeries in the last two years and is taking FOREVER to heal from an injury that other people only take 3 months to heal from. I think he's done. If we could trade him for Bosh that would be great, we'd have to get a PG though.

[Ced67]

bosh is a #2 option forced to be a #1

arenas when healthy is a #1 option

unless i was reasonably sure that arenas would never be 100% again, no dice

What's the definition of a #1 option, he's averaging almost 24 ppg on 16.5 shots a game. I'd personally rather have 3 or 4 really good options who will find the open man or hit the hot guy than have a definite #1 who's expected to put up 20-25 shots a game. The fact that he's only taking 16.5 shots a game shows me that he can still allow a guy like Caron to get off and possibly a Stephen Jackson who was the third guy in my second proposed trade. I guess I was trying to follow the Boston model more than anything else, PP is only taking 13 shots a game and they are clicking on all cylinders offensively because you can't shut down 1 guy and stop the offense. Even LA is starting to do that more with Kobe, he's obviously still the man, but when he puts up less shots and gets other guys involved and they become threats, they're a lot better off.

[Halcyon]

The Boston model is really the "perfect storm" because all 3 of those guys were #1 options before coming to Boston. Not to mention that new Wizards team would still be very poor defensively. Calderon can't guard anybody, Young is mediocre, and Butler is still there.

I mean I'd love to see that new Wizards + Raptors lineup, but it still looks like a run and gun team to me.

[Ced67]

The Boston model is really the "perfect storm" because all 3 of those guys were #1 options before coming to Boston. Not to mention that new Wizards team would still be very poor defensively. Calderon can't guard anybody, Young is mediocre, and Butler is still there.

I mean I'd love to see that new Wizards + Raptors lineup, but it still looks like a run and gun team to me.

I agree, a lineup including Calderon and Young at the guards would be pretty bad defensively and it would be more of an uptempo offense, but the lineup I was referring to was the one I proposed, the Calderon alteration was done boy Rico, mine would have been a lineup including Butler and Stephen Jackson at the wings and Bosh at PF. I think allowing Butler to guard mostly 2's would help his defense a lot. Granted we would still need a long term PG but that would be something we could look to get in 2010 via either draft or FA. I look at that lineup with those three core guys, add a PG who can get top the basket and a wing who could come off of the bench(i.e Jmaes Harden) and I think that you could have a lineup similar the that in Boston, now Bosh isn't KG but I think the chemistry on the squad would be enough to have those guys play well together. Obviously, I'm not sure, but I think the mind sets and playing styles of those three are very similar whereas the mind sets of Butler and Arenas seem to be completely different, when Gil is on the court Butler seems to take a back seat and doesn't get the same touches. I just don't want to see that go away. A lot of what's going on in Boston right now is because of talent but I think a big portion also has to do with the fact that those guys are so unselfish and are willing to let others score, when you have 4-5 possible scorers on the floor at the same time it almost makes them impossible to defend, we've played with Gil, Butler and Jamison, the young guys seem to stand around and never get shots up.

[barelyawake]

Gotta say this (since no one here has mentioned it). And it'll be my last post of the holiday season. As Obama said, our time is now. A smart owner realizes January is one of the most important months in DC's (and this nation's) history, and uses every tool he possesses to turn the Wizards around using that month -- relationships with hotels, businesses, private mansions, skyboxes etc. This is OUR town. Leverage that fact. Use it to create relationships throughout the entire NBA. This the most important month in Wiz franchise history, if you simply play it right. Target the players you want on your roster; owners you want to trade with; businesses you want to deal with, and use your Washington contacts to ensure they have a memorable inauguration.

If you can't sell Obamatown to a basketball public, then you can't sell. In short, we own the market and people are ready to pay big. If you can't work that to your advantage, then you ought to be out of the business. Obama is our first African American President and our first basketball playing President. Obama's name sells merchandise. You don't even need to use his name. Businesses are selling the words "Hope" and "Change," as if it were their own. Basketball is a majority African American sport (almost all of whom want to celebrate this historic presidency). People are willing to spend multi-millions to have a historic inauguration. EVERYONE wants to come to DC for January. Do the math.

November fifth would have been day one for my Wizards' franchise. I would have treated that as the rebirth. I would have been on the phone to every basketball agent; shoe company president; player I wanted to woo; luxury hotel; DC limo company; available mansion to rent; friend who owned a luxury suite; Obama press agents; etc. and MADE DEAL AFTER DEAL to position the future of the franchise. The goal is to prove to prospective players, agents, companies, etc. that Washington is a basketball town and that Wizards' ownership are serious about making a championship run. You do that by parlaying inauguration and an Obama presidency into selling the Wizards to everyone in and around the NBA. Layout the future of the franchise and demonstrate how you get from now to championship. Sell the business opportunities; the growth of the community around Washington; and the potential of the franchise. For instance, when you have say Bosh's agent in your personal suite overlooking Constitution Ave., you tend to be able to get a word in about trades. Etc etc etc... I understand there are NBA rules about talking trades with players, but there are always wink and a nod ways to influence trades (via agents and athletic wear companies; or simply talk to the athletes about the goals and future of the franchise; or say hiring the coach the player wants to play for).

A smart owner could make this a championship team in three years (and a contending team next year -- losing to Boston twice, before finally taking them), by playing off our pieces; our salary situation (meaning our expiring contracts); the Obama presidency; and the direction of the NBA to slim down for 2010. A smart owner realizes we have to tank to win and plans to tank (by trading for the future and letting the youth develop). The future must be built on defense, so tank on defense and toughness (meaning hold Arenas back, or playing him simply to trade him, and/or trade for defensive players now). Develop the attitude of toughness now. Teams lose by having defense and no O all the time. At least that sets the tempo. Then, add the scoring elements and new leadership next year (which is the start of rebuilding/shooting the moon). A smart owner realizes that other teams are shedding salary for 2010 and does the opposite by collecting talent with expiring contracts.

Ride the friggin' wave. You have everyone wanting to be in your backyard. You better throw a barbeque. Our time is now. You know how many deals go on in business over Super Bowl tickets? We have a once in a lifetime Super Bowl happening in our backyard. SELL IT. Fans ought to pressure ownership to use this time wisely. The next half decade depends on it.

OK I'm out. Happy holidays.

PS Ced, you only trade Arenas if you've scouted Rubio and are absolutely sure he's going to be a top seven PG. Go back and read my original post and look at the bottom line-up (Rubio/Young/Caron/Bosh/Haywood w/ Jackson as glue guy). PG and a star big are the hardest positions to fill. If you think Rubio will be the truth, and you can bank on him as the future, then you trade Arenas. Until then, Caron is the best trade since SF is the easiest position to fill.

[pancakes3]

good thoughts from a non-basketball perspective, BA. However,

DC doesn't has a reputation for being a small market but we don't attract free agents either. Arenas was a windfall, and he wasn't even that big of a star when he signed with us. The Knicks, no matter how bad they are, will always be alluring simply because of MSG, bright lights, and big city glitz. I agree with BA that DC has the potential to be recognized as a basketball town now with barrack but i don't think it's as easy as making a few calls and selling the Obama aspect. DC simply doesn't have the history that New York has. PG getting recognized as a basketball hotbed is a start, but the tradition can't rival rucker park, or coney island. I think even with Public Relations working overtime, with Barrack serving 2 terms, and PG continuing to churn out absurdly good SF's, DC is a good 10 years away from establishing itself as a "good" franchise.

[nate33]

The net effect, multiple league sources tell me, is that the cap is likely to increase little, if any, next season. Whether it increases will depend largely on team's walk-up sales the rest of the season.

That has huge implications league-wide because the luxury tax level moves in lockstep with the cap. Teams have built their salary structures on the assumption of a rising tax -- but instead, many teams are locked into salaries for next season that will increase 10 percent without any corresponding increase in the tax level.

*snip*

And if you think the summer of 2009 looks bad, just wait until the much-hyped summer of 2010. First, the league's revenues are likely to be much lower in 2009-10 than they are this season, and that's the number that's the basis for setting the 2010-11 cap. The many season-ticket holders and sponsors who couldn't get out of their commitments this fall instead will jump ship a year from now, creating a revenue shortfall league-wide.

*snip*

To illustrate, I modeled a situation in which league revenues increase by 2 percent in 2008-09 but declined by 3 percent in 2009-10. I'm not saying this will happen, but just humor me for a second.



If that were the case, the cap would decrease by about 0.5 percent in 2008-09 ... and then it would decrease by a whopping 5.6 percent in 2009-10. The cap would go all the way down to $55.2 million that year.

Scroll to bottom of the page for Hollinger's comments

Wow! That throws a monkey wrench into the long term plan. No increased salary cap next year? A salary cap in the $55M range the year after? I'll plug in the numbers from my spreadsheet, assuming we land the #4 pick in the draft and we resign Haywood in 2010.

Code: Select all

Player           08/09  09/10  10/11  11/12
Arenas,Gilbert   14.65  16.19  17.73  19.27
Jamison,Antawn    9.93  11.65  13.36  15.08
Butler,Caron      9.25  10.03  10.81    - 
Thomas,Etan       6.86   7.35    -      - 
James,Mike        6.20   6.40    -      - 
Haywood,Brendan   5.50   6.00   7.00   7.50
Songaila,Darius   4.26   4.55   4.84    - 
Stevenson,Desha   3.62   3.89   4.15    - 
Blatche,Andray    2.74   3.00   3.26   3.52
Young,Nick        1.60   1.75   2.69    - 
Pecherov,Olesky   1.45   1.55   2.38    - 
McGee,JaVale      1.39   1.50   1.60   2.46
Javaris Critten   1.38   1.48   2.28    - 
McGuire,Dominic   0.71   0.83    -      - 
2009 pick (#4)     -     3.01   3.23   3.46
2010 pick (#23)    -      -     1.20   1.29
2011 pick (#23)    -      -      -     1.24

Total Salary     69.54  79.17  74.55  53.83
Salary Cap       58.68  58.30  55.20  55.20
Luxury Tax       71.15  71.13  67.34  67.34
Money Available   1.61  -8.04  -7.20  13.52

We're totally screwed unless something is done. We're now $8M over the cap next year and $7M over the cap even after Etan and James are unloaded (assuming Haywood is resigned to a modest deal). Heck, we're even screwed in 2011/12 once we resign Butler.

Jamison's new contract may turn out to be a catastrophic mistake. It could potentially cost us Haywood and DMac. We need to shed contracts and we need to do it now.

Given these cap projections, it'll be difficult to painlessly dump James or Etan and save luxtax room next season. It's going to be even harder to dump Songaila or Stevenson because nobody is going to want to take on salary in 2010/11.

EG needs to get on the phone. He should first attempt to dump Stevenson. Stevenson has proven to be unnecessary and his contract lasts until 2011, impacting the resigning of Haywood. With his injury though, it may be impossible to unload him.

If he can't dump Stevenson, Songaila should be on the block next. Songaila has played well and several teams are in dire need or a quality backup PF. Again, Songaila for Cook, Songaila for Rashual Butler, or Songaila for Pavlovic are possibilities. We'll miss Songaila, but he's a luxury we can't afford.

Dumping Etan and/or James should definitely be explored to help avoid the luxtax crunch in 2009; but that won't address our problems in 2010/11 so it won't help in the retention of Haywood. My guess is that EG has been working the phones to dump Etan for years now and hasn't found any takers. He may have a plan to unload James, but if he is packaged with another player (Pecherov?) he won't be able to impliment it until February 10th.

The bottom line though is that in the likely event that EG can't dump any of our crappy contracts, EG must seriously consider trading Jamison. It's no longer a theoretical conversation on whether or not an aging Jamison will help this team going forward and if he's worth the money. It's now a choice between keeping Jamison or keeping Haywood and DMac. I don't think it's possible to keep them all past 2010.

I'm going to have to stop being so greedy with Jamison trades. After seeing this Hollinger column, I might be willing to trade Jamison + Stevenson straight up for LaFrentz's contract. Or Jamison + Stevenson straight up for Wally's contract.

How about Jamison + Etan + Stevenson for LaFrentz + Frye + Diogu? That saves $1M instantly, $22.8M next year, $17.5M in 2010/11, and $15.1M in 2011/12. Portland gives up garbage for Antawn Jamison.

[Ruzious]

Great work, nate. Thanks for smartening us up - no matter how ugly it looks.

Mmmm... Raef's contract.

[BigA]

It it's ugly for the Wizards, it's got to be ugly for other teams as well. I wonder whether there's a general awareness of this in league front offices at this point.

[daSwami]

Maybe the NBA can get some of that federal bailout money. Mark Cuban testifying before Congress on CSPAN would be must-see TV imho.

[LyricalRico]

It it's ugly for the Wizards, it's got to be ugly for other teams as well. I wonder whether there's a general awareness of this in league front offices at this point.

That was my reaction as well. No wonder the Blazers are willing to risk a lawsuit from Darius Miles - if they don't, they'll have zero flexibility to take their team to the next level. Denver dumping Camby doesn't look so bad, either. In fact, it looks darn shrewd.

Moving our guys is going to be a bear. Most teams are going to be sellers and the only teams buying will be contenders who think they can win a title immediately. To get a deal done IMO we're going to have to drastically over-compenstate any buyer with picks and/or young talent (Blatche, Young, McGee, Critt, etc).

The downside to that is that we'd be giving up our own cheap labor and would be stuck with finding equally cheap replacements.

[MJG]

Trading Jamison to an upper tier team for an expiring really seems like the move to make. I think between Blatche and a high lottery pick, we can manage the PF spot after such a move next season and beyond, so why not?