Long Term Plan? (merged threads)

[Ced67]

Trading Jamison to an upper tier team for an expiring really seems like the move to make. I think between Blatche and a high lottery pick, we can manage the PF spot after such a move next season and beyond, so why not?

If we trade Jamison for expirings I think we should go after Milsap, Powe or Lee in the off season. I didn't even realize that Milsap and Powe are unrestricted this year. I know Blatche is long but I can't stand his play on the court. Id rather take a Powe or Milsap who are athletic, strong and hold their positions under the basket and who know their role, I think if you gave either of those guys a consistent 30mpg they could rack up about 12-15ppg, and 9-11rpg and add some toughness. If EG drafts another tall wiry guy who can get beat up in the post buy a Chris Wilcox type player, I'm gonna scream, I think that's a huge part of the problem with this team, no toughness and you have reserves who think they're stars. However, if we do have a chance at Griffin, I think that he'd be a pretty good player, prob. not a 20-10 guy but at least a solid 15-8 guy. I don't think his rebounding is going to translate 100% to the NBA(kind of like Beasley but a little better, I don't think he's actually 6'10), and at times his motor is a bit weak. I know guys like Milsap and Powe are a bit undersized at 6'8, but I would take the strength and aggressiveness that they play with along with the rebounding and their ability to know their role over Blatche any day. I doubt we will see many 20ft jumpers coming from either of those guys out of the rhythm of the offense very often.

[LyricalRico]

If we trade Jamison for expirings I think we should go after Milsap, Powe or Lee in the off season.

I would actually replace Powe on your list with Brandon Bass.

But your overall point is good and really should factor into evaluating a "Jamison for expirings" scenairo. We wouldn't just be trading Jamison for expiring contracts. We'd be trading him for expiring contracts AND whoever we sign with the MLE to replace him.

[nate33]

We can't go after Millsap in the offseason. We'll only have the MLE and Utah would surely match an MLE offer.

I also doubt that we have a shot at landing Lee with the MLE. I think Lee will ultimately end up signing a contract for the full MLE, but he won't choose to come to this team where he'll be a backup with a minimal chance at a title. He'll go someplace like San Antonio, Detroit or Boston, or maybe he'll choose to sign someplace like OKC where he can be a starter on a young team.

Powe is a possibility, but he's no better than DSong and will probably cost just as much, if not more. Besides, signing him would violate Dat2U's First Commandment: Thou shalt not overpay for a role player. Whatever incremental improvement Powe provides (if any) won't be worth the loss in cap manueverability.

[mhd]

Ugh, thanks for the unfortunate news Nate. I agree with your premise: The Wizards have to trade Jamison. Assuming we get a young PF in the draft (Griffin, Hill, Monroe), than Jamison becomes a luxary.

[Ced67]

We can't go after Millsap in the offseason. We'll only have the MLE and Utah would surely match an MLE offer.

I also doubt that we have a shot at landing Lee with the MLE. I think Lee will ultimately end up signing a contract for the full MLE, but he won't choose to come to this team where he'll be a backup with a minimal chance at a title. He'll go someplace like San Antonio, Detroit or Boston, or maybe he'll choose to sign someplace like OKC where he can be a starter on a young team.

Powe is a possibility, but he's no better than DSong and will probably cost just as much, if not more. Besides, signing him would violate Dat2U's First Commandment: Thou shalt not overpay for a role player. Whatever incremental improvement Powe provides (if any) won't be worth the loss in cap manueverability.

Nate, I was factoring trading Jamison before the trade deadline before going after either Milsap, Powe or Lee, more so Milsap and Powe. If we get rid of Jamison's contract we should be able to offer more than the MLE for a guy like Milsap, which I would be willing to do. Also, I think Milsap is unrestricted so even if Utah wanted to match, he could still come here if he wanted to, I think.

I do agree with you on Milsap though. I think he offers more than Songaila as far as athleticism is concerned but we would probably have to pay him more than we would like. We could also draft someone like Gani Lawal from GT who could fill that role. I would just like to get someone who's tough and who actually plays hard at either the 4 or 5 positions. Every big on this roster is soft or doesn't play hard half of the time, outside of Songaila and maybe Etan(but he's definitely not worth his contract). I can't stand seeing Blatche running around like a zombie on both ends of the floor and either shooting fade away 20 footers, trying to break someone down with the dribble from the top of the key, or trying to post someone up and either losing the ball, or shooting fade aways. All I want is a tough ass who knows his role and wont shy away from contact, make it happen EG.

Lastly, I forgot that Lee is restricted this offseason too so he could still take the qualifying offer from the Knicks for next season if offered.

[Dat2U]

Wow! That throws a monkey wrench into the long term plan. No increased salary cap next year? A salary cap in the $55M range the year after? I'll plug in the numbers from my spreadsheet, assuming we land the #4 pick in the draft and we resign Haywood in 2010.

Code: Select all

Player           08/09  09/10  10/11  11/12
Arenas,Gilbert   14.65  16.19  17.73  19.27
Jamison,Antawn    9.93  11.65  13.36  15.08
Butler,Caron      9.25  10.03  10.81    - 
Thomas,Etan       6.86   7.35    -      - 
James,Mike        6.20   6.40    -      - 
Haywood,Brendan   5.50   6.00   7.00   7.50
Songaila,Darius   4.26   4.55   4.84    - 
Stevenson,Desha   3.62   3.89   4.15    - 
Blatche,Andray    2.74   3.00   3.26   3.52
Young,Nick        1.60   1.75   2.69    - 
Pecherov,Olesky   1.45   1.55   2.38    - 
McGee,JaVale      1.39   1.50   1.60   2.46
Javaris Critten   1.38   1.48   2.28    - 
McGuire,Dominic   0.71   0.83    -      - 
2009 pick (#4)     -     3.01   3.23   3.46
2010 pick (#23)    -      -     1.20   1.29
2011 pick (#23)    -      -      -     1.24

Total Salary     69.54  79.17  74.55  53.83
Salary Cap       58.68  58.30  55.20  55.20
Luxury Tax       71.15  71.13  67.34  67.34
Money Available   1.61  -8.04  -7.20  13.52

We're totally screwed unless something is done. We're now $8M over the cap next year and $7M over the cap even after Etan and James are unloaded (assuming Haywood is resigned to a modest deal). Heck, we're even screwed in 2011/12 once we resign Butler.

Jamison's new contract may turn out to be a catastrophic mistake. It could potentially cost us Haywood and DMac. We need to shed contracts and we need to do it now.

Given these cap projections, it'll be difficult to painlessly dump James or Etan and save luxtax room next season. It's going to be even harder to dump Songaila or Stevenson because nobody is going to want to take on salary in 2010/11.

EG needs to get on the phone. He should first attempt to dump Stevenson. Stevenson has proven to be unnecessary and his contract lasts until 2011, impacting the resigning of Haywood. With his injury though, it may be impossible to unload him.

If he can't dump Stevenson, Songaila should be on the block next. Songaila has played well and several teams are in dire need or a quality backup PF. Again, Songaila for Cook, Songaila for Rashual Butler, or Songaila for Pavlovic are possibilities. We'll miss Songaila, but he's a luxury we can't afford.

Dumping Etan and/or James should definitely be explored to help avoid the luxtax crunch in 2009; but that won't address our problems in 2010/11 so it won't help in the retention of Haywood. My guess is that EG has been working the phones to dump Etan for years now and hasn't found any takers. He may have a plan to unload James, but if he is packaged with another player (Pecherov?) he won't be able to impliment it until February 10th.

The bottom line though is that in the likely event that EG can't dump any of our crappy contracts, EG must seriously consider trading Jamison. It's no longer a theoretical conversation on whether or not an aging Jamison will help this team going forward and if he's worth the money. It's now a choice between keeping Jamison or keeping Haywood and DMac. I don't think it's possible to keep them all past 2010.

I'm going to have to stop being so greedy with Jamison trades. After seeing this Hollinger column, I might be willing to trade Jamison + Stevenson straight up for LaFrentz's contract. Or Jamison + Stevenson straight up for Wally's contract.

How about Jamison + Etan + Stevenson for LaFrentz + Frye + Diogu? That saves $1M instantly, $22.8M next year, $17.5M in 2010/11, and $15.1M in 2011/12. Portland gives up garbage for Antawn Jamison.

Nate, thanks for the great info. This is why I've been screaming about cap flexibility for the longest. I've long thought that DeBrick & Songaila were contracts (er, luxuries) that we could not afford. That's why I have wanted to see them go AT ALL COSTS. Same with Jamison, were not going anywhere with him and his 20 & 10 with great leadership, so we need to move forward w/o him.

Damn the idea of using Etan Thomas & Mike James as enticing expiring contracts next year to help get us that star. It was always a far fetched idea and money wise it just doesn't work. We need those contracts to simply expire, the sooner the better. More than likely though, it will have to be 2010. My focus is always been on moving the 'big three contracts' of DeBrick, D-Song & Jamison. Trading Jamison for LaFrentz would be a coup IMO, especially if D-Song or DeBrick could be included.

I also wouldn't be opposed to using Nick Young, Pecherov or J-Critt to dump DeBrick's deal. In fact that may be necessary if we want DeBrick off our cap. Pecherov & Critt's options should not be picked up unless they start showing they can be worthwile rotation players.

A core of Arenas, Haywood, McGee, Butler, Blatche, '09 lottery pick, '10 1st rounder & McGuire (cheap cap hold) is solid enough and inexpensive enough to move forward with. We'd be around 8-9 million under the cap and we'd have Butler, Blatche & draft picks to possibly make a major trade. Plus the flexibility of being under a cap puts in a great position to be a facilitator in trades were teams are desperate to shave salary. Also if the financial outlook is as a bad as Hollinger theorizes then we may actually have a chance of adding a quality FA at a bargain price considering the potential lack of cash flow in the market.

[LyricalRico]

I also wouldn't be opposed to using Nick Young, Pecherov or J-Critt to dump DeBrick's deal. In fact that may be necessary if we want DeBrick off our cap. Pecherov & Critt's options should not be picked up unless they start showing they can be worthwile rotation players.

I was thinking the same thing. We're going to have to use some of the young guys and maybe even our 2010 first to unload our contracts.

[Rafael122]

I'd rather trade OPEC and Critt before I trade Young.

I've been saying OPEC's option shouldn't be picked up. Half the time I forget he's on the team. Stevenson's deal is not a salary cap breaker. It's only like $3.5 mil. Not a big deal. Move Etan and James, and use some of the young players as throw ins to get the deal done.

If we are going big in the draft, someone is going to left out.

[LyricalRico]

These moves would get our cap completely in order:

TRADE DEADLINE
Young + DeBrick + Dixon for Stackhouse
Etan +Songaila + Pesh for Hughes

SUMMER
Mike James + 2010 first for DET future second round pick

Those moves solve all our problems and give us enough breathing room next season to fill out our roster with a couple minimum salary players.

2009-10 ROSTER
Haywood/McGee
Jamison/Blatche
Butler/McGuire
Hughes/Harden(?)
Arenas/Crittenton

Three minimum salary players would be about all we could afford and that would only take us to 13 deep. But it's a chance we'd have to take to avoid the luxury tax. The great thing is there aren't any vets on the second unit standing in the way of the development of the young guys.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

We can't go after Millsap in the offseason. We'll only have the MLE and Utah would surely match an MLE offer.

I also doubt that we have a shot at landing Lee with the MLE. I think Lee will ultimately end up signing a contract for the full MLE, but he won't choose to come to this team where he'll be a backup with a minimal chance at a title. He'll go someplace like San Antonio, Detroit or Boston, or maybe he'll choose to sign someplace like OKC where he can be a starter on a young team.

Powe is a possibility, but he's no better than DSong and will probably cost just as much, if not more. Besides, signing him would violate Dat2U's First Commandment: Thou shalt not overpay for a role player. Whatever incremental improvement Powe provides (if any) won't be worth the loss in cap manueverability.

Last season Powe's numbers translated to 20 points, 10 rebounds per-36 minutes, on .572 eFG . His PER was 20.9.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... ele01.html

Don't know if he's worth the MLE, but I believe he's still improving and is a better player than Songaila. Powe has explosive hops and was a big-time scorer at Cal. He can finish in traffic and draws fouls inside.

[hands11]

bosh is a #2 option forced to be a #1

arenas when healthy is a #1 option

unless i was reasonably sure that arenas would never be 100% again, no dice

What's the definition of a #1 option, he's averaging almost 24 ppg on 16.5 shots a game. I'd personally rather have 3 or 4 really good options who will find the open man or hit the hot guy than have a definite #1 who's expected to put up 20-25 shots a game. The fact that he's only taking 16.5 shots a game shows me that he can still allow a guy like Caron to get off and possibly a Stephen Jackson who was the third guy in my second proposed trade. I guess I was trying to follow the Boston model more than anything else, PP is only taking 13 shots a game and they are clicking on all cylinders offensively because you can't shut down 1 guy and stop the offense. Even LA is starting to do that more with Kobe, he's obviously still the man, but when he puts up less shots and gets other guys involved and they become threats, they're a lot better off.

And that is why even back when they were humming, my sig read... Kill the big three.. we need a team.

04-05 FGA
GA 19, Hughes 17.8, AJ 17.5, BH 6.3 - no one else shot more the 9 and that was Hayes

05-06 FGA
GA 20.9, AJ 18.2, CB 14.5, BH 5.5 - no one else shot more the 8.7 and that was Hayes

06-07 FGA
GA 20.9, AJ 16.3, CB 15.5, BH 4.6
http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/WAS/2007.html

This was the year AJ went off in the playoffs with no GA or CB and wise ol EFJ refused to play Haywood and Blatche. If you want a good laugh, click on that link and go down to the playoff advanced table that shows PER for Haywood and Blatche.

06-07 FGA
GA 15.1, AJ 17.9, CB 16.3, BH 7.5

Gil still managed 15 shots a game but only played in 13 games

By comparison

Boston 2008-2009
PP 13.4, RA 12.8, KG 13.4

Boston 2007-2008
PP 13.7, RA 13.5, KG 13.9

But it not just the shot distribution. They have a SF 6-6 who is great off the dribble and can spot up shoot. A SG who is one of the best spot up shooter in the league and an athletic strong tough minded physical athletic PF.

We have/had tweaners except Haywood who is a natural C and Blatche a natural PF. Blatche just needs to get KG strong and mentally tough. He is already 15 lbs heavier then KG if you can believe that. This team needs to start putting player or finding player who can play their natural position.

Look at Orlando's distribution
http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/ORL/2009.html

New Orleans
http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/NOH/2009.html

Now show me the champion calibor team with a high volume shoot first PG. Closets you can find is 1990 Isiah Thomas and even he only shot 16.3 but he also dished out 9.4 assists

http://www.basketball-reference.com/playoffs/

GA simply can't shoot so much... specially if he is playing PG.

It scares me how much he reminds me of AI. Exciting player but a waste of talent.

[miller31time]

We're not going to use the MLE, are we?

[hands11]

http://www.nbcwashington.com/sports/bas ... tler-.html

Caron Not Going Anywhere.


Not sure many of us though he was but it is interesting.

God I wish AJ was signed to about 7-8M and coming off the bench and GA contract didn't exceed 15/16M a year. That would be so sweet.

You just have to be so careful about signing players to these big contracts.

Look at this list. Who among them do you really think is worth the money they are getting paid ? This doesn't even take into account how back the entire contract is because of length and salary increases.

http://hoopshype.com/salaries.htm

1. Kevin Garnett Boston $24,750,000 - God that is a lot.
2. Stephon Marbury New York $21,937,500 - No way no how. Maybe 8M
-. Allen Iverson Detroit $21,937,500 - So over rated - maybe 12-13M
4. Jason Kidd Dallas $21,372,000 - way over paid - maybe - 13-14M
5. Jermaine O'Neal Toronto $21,352,500 - yeah right - 12M
6. Kobe Bryant LA Lakers $21,262,500 - should be a top paid player. Sure
7. Tracy McGrady Houston $21,126,874 - no way - 14M
8. Tim Duncan San Antonio $20,598,703 - sure - could get more
9. Shaquille O'Neal Phoenix $20,000,000 - Not anymore - 14M
10. Steve Francis Portland / Memphis $19,814,480 - God no - 8-10M
11. Dirk Nowitzki Dallas $18,077,904 - Sure - he is a top player
-. Paul Pierce Boston $18,077,904 - I pay that
-. Shawn Marion Miami $17,180,000 - maybe 10-12M
14. Ray Allen Boston $17,388,430 - maybe 15M
15. Rashard Lewis Orlando $17,238,000 - maybe 12-14M
16. Michael Redd Milwaukee $15,780,000 maybe 12M
17. Mike Bibby Atlanta $15,225,000 - he a vet quality PG - I could see this but maybe less
18. Vince Carter New Jersey $15,200,000 - He earns his keep
19. Andrei Kirilenko Utah $15,080,312 - I can see him getting that. 13M would be better.
-. Pau Gasol LA Lakers $15,080,312 - Thats fine
21. Yao Ming Houston $15,070,550 - He could get more
-. Amare Stoudemire Phoenix $15,070,550 - Fine
23. Zach Randolph LA Clippers $14,666,666
24. Lamar Odom LA Lakers $14,559,000
25. Ben Wallace Cleveland $14,500,000
-. Gilbert Arenas Washington 14,500,000
27. Chris Bosh Toronto $14,410,581
-. Dwyane Wade Miami $14,410,581
-. Carmelo Anthony Denver $14,410,581
-. LeBron James Cleveland $14,410,581


Most of those top 20 contracts are bad. Some every bad. And the worst are over paid guards. That's why I don't like Gibert's contract.

[Rafael122]

The fact that the article came out suggests that Grunfeld probably made a few inquires. I mean, I've never heard of NBC Washington so I don't know how legit it is but it does seem strange. So the Wizards have had talks with the Nets? And the Nets don't want to trade Harris, so what's the point of even talking then?

If Caron is available, Grunfeld needs to make it known to the following teams:

Phoenix - for Amare
Utah - AK 47
Toronto - Bosh


Etc. I think Ernie would move Jamison before he'd move Butler though.

[WashWiz54]

Would ya'll really pull the trigger on an AK for Butler deal? I just don't see what's so good in AK47. I don't see him anywhere close to being on Caron's level. Plus he has an ugly deal that makes him that much worse.

We may have to throw in a little extra for these guys, but they're the only ones I'd trade Caron for:

Dirk- I know Cuban loves him but if they decide to blow it up, Dirk will go.
Amare- Sounds like he's getting more and more unhappy, and the Suns seems to be willing to make a deal.
Bosh- The Raptors are sucking, Bargnani is breaking out, and Bosh is a '10 free-agent. All signs may point to an inevitable move.

[Kanyewest]

No one is hyping up OPec in the 12 minutes of garbage time? I believe made both of his shots for 5 points and had 5 rebounds.

[Rafael122]

AK 47 plays defense. He doesn't even have to score. Just defend the best player on the opposing team and that's it. We've got enough scoring as is, but you build a defense around Haywood and Kirilenko, and the possibility of Blake Griffin?

Arenas could stay on the other side of the court.

I really really want Amare but I don't know, judging by Ernie's way of dealing without the media knowing, I don't know if he's called or not. We just don't know. Ivan Carter doesn't help so we really have no clue if he's made calls to see if something can get done.

Did you guys read that article on the main Real GM page? About how the Wizards could do something similar to what Boston did a year ago? That's what Washington should do. Forget 2010, if you can get Amare or Bosh NOW, and have them sign an extension? Do it. Do it.

[fishercob]

The fact that the article came out suggests that Grunfeld probably made a few inquires. I mean, I've never heard of NBC Washington so I don't know how legit it is but it does seem strange. So the Wizards have had talks with the Nets? And the Nets don't want to trade Harris, so what's the point of even talking then?

If Caron is available, Grunfeld needs to make it known to the following teams:

Phoenix - for Amare
Utah - AK 47
Toronto - Bosh


Etc. I think Ernie would move Jamison before he'd move Butler though.

The "article" is nothing more than blog musings. No news.

[Mr. Grundle]

Really, can someone give a logical explanation? The question is brought up every single day. By our fans, opposing teams fans, TV commentators, radio commentators, newspaper writers.....pretty much everyone in the world that watches Wizards basketball and isn't named Ed Tapscott, Ernie Grunfield, Steve Buckhantz, Phil Chenier, or Glenn Consor.

In a season that is already lost, on a team full of young players bursting with potential, why are veterans playing over the young players that everyone agrees just need time on the court to improve? Veterans that will not be on the team next season and are not in our plans for the future? And why are the veterans that we ARE counting on for the future being run into the ground playing 40+ minutes a game, when our only priority should be keeping them healthy for next season? This is the PERFECT time for young players who we drafted based on "potential" to be getting valuable experience on the court, when the games are essentially meaningless, and losses actually help us.

So again, what are we doing? There seem to be two pervading theories:

1) Ed Tapscott is a full fledged moron.

Even if this is true, why hasn't Ernie stepped in and done something? This would mean Ernie is also a full fledged moron, and I don't believe that is true.

2) Ernie is planning a big move.

Playing veterans trying to pump up trade value and hiding youth with potential on the bench to preserve that potential and their health, also for the purpose of trade.

#2 is what I want to believe is happening, and seems to be the only logical explanation if you agree that EG isn't (Please Use More Appropriate Word).

But then again, I have that feeling in my stomach that, "This is the Washington Wizards and good moves, good fortune, whatever you call it, cannot be bestowed upon thee, ever". That we are destined to suck forever, and all logic and rationale goes out the window when it comes to the Wizards.

What else could be happening here? Am I missing something? What is YOUR theory?

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Mr. Grundles, I think one and two are both true.

Tapscott's gestures and lineups at the end of the Portland game have me convinced he's actually trying to win with veterans and he's scapegoating young players. It escapes him that the veterans are most egregious in not playing good defense and in forcing jump shots.

Grunfeld I would guess supports Tapscott playing James big minutes, because EG would like to get James' numbers up for a trade. EG could support not playing Pecherov to trade him to a team on his potential. I wouldn't be surprised if once DeShawn comes back the Wizards try to acquire Hughes. I wouldn't be shocked if Young got traded, either. EG has made moves this season, and I'm expecting something by the trade deadline. .

I think while Tapscott is foolish to play Jamison and Butler so many minutes, EG might be considering trading either of them so the bigger their numbers are the better.

Last, I think the more losses the better at this point, so EG has the right man coaching.