The Official Keep Tyrus Thread

[VinTheBarber]

The kool aid is great BullsnBears u should really have a glass...lmao

[BOBBA LUI]

I love Koolaid

[IliketheBullsNBearstoo]

The kool aid is great BullsnBears u should really have a glass...lmao

Dude, I've been drinking it for the last month. TT has been playing much better and it's been fun. But with the Amare trade talks I had to put the glass down and not make decisions with my kool aid goggles on. You tend to wake up the next morning and feel like you made a really bad choice.

[Sonny_D1]

Oops you wont find one but Tyrus.

So I would have to its probably close to you underrating him as a defender than I am overrating him.

You will have a hard time convincing anyone that a guy that avgs 1.8blks AND 1.1 stls as being just an avg defender.

Marcus Camby averages 2.4 blocks, .9 steals and a 102 DRtg - I'd like to see you explain how he's still an elite defender these days. He was even better last year - 3.6/1.1/98 and Denver has not lost a beat defensively without him.

Denver hasn't lost a beat defensively because some guy named Nene has come out of nowhere to post unbelievable numbers this year. And then they have this guy named Chris Andersen coming off the bench that's pretty damn solid defensively too. Oh and Kenyon Martin, I'll mention something about him down below.

Hell, Drew Gooden has the third-best DRtg on the team. Explain that one.

You really can't explain it, other than to say the rest of our guys play crappy defense OR more importantly, DRtg as a defensive metric rating has it's flaws, and big ones at that.

Look, from the research I've done the best metric in terms of player efficiency as a whole is the ADJUSTED PLUS/MINUS RATINGS. According to these ratings, Camby was 9th in the league last year in defensive adjusted +/-. Oh and Kenyon Martin, he was ranked 2nd in the entire league with a 6.05 rating, second to only KG at 7.59.

[VinTheBarber]

Ahhhh, i dont know im addicted i guess.If this deal does happen and Tys gone im gonna need REHAB..lol .Really though im going with my gut and that means ride out with Tyrus..

[Scott May]

Look, from the research I've done the best metric in terms of player efficiency as a whole is the ADJUSTED PLUS/MINUS RATINGS. According to these ratings, Camby was 9th in the league last year in defensive adjusted +/-. Oh and Kenyon Martin, he was ranked 2nd in the entire league with a 6.05 rating, second to only KG at 7.59.

Sonny, what are you looking at that gives those rankings?

Last year the Nuggs yielded 106.9 pp/100p with Camby on the floor and 108.0 with him off. That's positive, but hardly anything that should lead to his being ranked 9th in the league in anything.

[Sonny_D1]

Look, from the research I've done the best metric in terms of player efficiency as a whole is the ADJUSTED PLUS/MINUS RATINGS. According to these ratings, Camby was 9th in the league last year in defensive adjusted +/-. Oh and Kenyon Martin, he was ranked 2nd in the entire league with a 6.05 rating, second to only KG at 7.59.

Sonny, what are you looking at that gives those rankings?

Last year the Nuggs yielded 106.9 pp/100p with Camby on the floor and 108.0 with him off. That's positive, but hardly anything that should lead to his being ranked 9th in the league in anything.

Like most metric systems there are huge flaws in the way they measure performance. Here is a wonderful explanation of this and how the Adjusted +/- system works (and then the link):

And yet boxscores fail to capture many important elements of play – lockdown defense, screens, rotations, hustle plays, and so on – that can affect the game’s bottom line

That’s why we believe it’s necessary to “think outside the boxscore” in order to adequately measure each player’s true value to his team. The plus-minus statistic, which tracks all changes in scoring while each player is on the court, is one promising approach that’s gained traction in recent years. But this metric suffers from a key drawback: each player’s rating is heavily dependent upon the quality of his on-court teammates. Even a mere role player on a great team (e.g., Glen Davis) typically has a higher plus-minus rating than a superstar on a bad team (Dwyane Wade). Fortunately, this limitation can be overcome through the use of advanced mathematical techniques, which make it possible to isolate the unique effects of each player on the court. In other words, we can statistically adjust each player’s plus-minus rating to account for the simultaneous impact of all his teammates and opponents [1]. Hence the name: adjusted plus-minus [2].

At first blush, the metric might even seem like the “holy grail” of basketball statistics – a single measure that captures the precise effect of each player on his team’s bottom-line scoring margin. But it, too, has a major drawback: as a mathematical estimate, each adjusted plus-minus rating contains measurement noise, i.e., a margin of error.

It’s important, therefore, to get this noise (error) level as low as possible, and we’ve taken an important step in that direction with the present set of ratings. Specifically, we’ve used five seasons’ worth of data (provided by 82games.com) – weighted very heavily in favor of the 2007-2008 season – to disentangle the individual effects of teammates who frequently appear on the court at the same time. As a result, we are able to present below the most accurate (low-noise) adjusted plus-minus ratings ever to appear in the public domain. In addition, we’ve modeled separately each player’s impact on offense and defense, treating these as completely independent variables. (Both innovations are explained in detail below the fold.)

http://82games.com/ilardi2p.htm#table

[JeremyB0001]

As long as you're acknowledging that you have to take the good with the bad, then I'm fine with using any time period you want -- one season, two seasons, his whole career, whatever. Too many analyses of this situation are being built on a foundation of "Tyrus's last five games may make this trade unnecessary," which is a huge, colossal mistake.

It's all relevant. Some stretches are just more relevant than others IMO. Your most recent performance is more relevant than older stretches of play. A stretch of games when you play a ton of minutes is more relevant than a stretch where you played less. A stretch of 30 games is more relevant than a stretch of ten games. A stretch that's particularly unusual (e.g. a big man shooting 28%) is less relevant than one that's more in line with what you'd expect. I'm just saying, I think that based on those types of factors, this 31 game stretch is pretty telling and pretty reliable.

+/- stats when coupled with PER and opponent PER are the gold standard of player comparisons.

I disagree. I think that when examined with any kind of scrutiny +/- looks highly unreliable. Take for instance, the fact that Tyrus went from putting up rather good +/- to poor ones despite having the best statistical season of his career. It's pretty inexplicable based on his play, so I think the logical conclusion is that the stat is garbage.

I'm a little bit more willing to consider opponent PER but I think it's also a stat fraught with some really serious problems, that looks fishy when you actually take a look at how different players rate. I don't know about some of the other big statistical analysts, but I've never seen Hollinger, perhaps the preeminent statistical analyst these days, use opponent PER or +/-, presumably because he doesn't trust those numbers.

Thomas is not locking down his own cover, contrary to what his backers are claiming

Are his backers claiming that? I hear people accuse "Tyrus-lovers" of believing that all the time but I'm not sure I can recall seeing anyone call him a lock down man defender, just a solid to good man defender. Those who buy into the opponent PER stat seem unable to accurately describe how it portrays him. People seem to believe his opponent PER (15.7) suggests he's a poor man defender when it's actually not that far off from revered defenders such as KG (14.9) and Duncan (14.7).

and the team is much worse with him on the floor than it is with him off.

I didn't see many people citing his strong +/- the last few years to argue he was a very good player. It's a junk statistic, let's not use it. The common sense that when he's playing well he's helping the team is a lot more useful.

This isn't something to slough off -- I challenge you to find a good major contributor on a good team with a PER/opp PER/+/- profile akin to Thomas's. You won't be able to do it.

I'm sure I can find tons of bizarre +/- ratings, that's never been hard. Here, looks like Jamario Moon is something like the 22nd best player in the NBA based on +/- with Matt Bonner trailing a few points behind. Rose and Horford are both way in the negative.

http://www.82games.com/0809/ONSORT6.HTM

People seem to like the Roland Ratings a lot more but those still have fun little oddities like Nate Robinson rating equal to Al Jefferson and players like Duhon, Oden, Horford, Gay, Mayo, and Rose all registering negative values. If we're posing questions to each other about these stats, what do you think Tyrus did to suddenly lead his team to play better when he's out of the game, when in the past they played better when he was in the game?

With the PER numbers we're getting into what's an acceptable split to look at again. Tyrus' PER on the season is still very average at 15.3 so he'll have an unimpressive PER differential. If you take the splits from the last 31 games, his PER is around 18, so I'm guessing his PER differential is around +3 or 4.

I'm sure he can improve and will be a much better player than he has been. But again, I'm hard-pressed to think of a player, especially a front-court player, who had a start as rocky and unimpressive as Thomas's who evolved into an All-Star. And that's before you even get into the argument over whether Thomas has the right kind of physical make-up to be a high-level 4 in this league.

I'm not sure anyone has claimed Tyrus will be an All-Star.

I don't really know what you're referring to when you mention his rocky and unimpressive start. Tyrus put up pretty solid numbers for a rookie, landing on the second All-Rookie team and putting up a better PER than players like Brewer and Gay who have gone on to have plenty of success. I expect him to finish this season with a PER in the 17 range, despite that brutal start, which is by no means shabby for a 22 year old. If I'd pick a season to describe as rocky and unimpressive, it'd be last season since his production leveled off from his rookie season but even then he managed to improve several important aspects of his game.

I've never seen any problem with a long, 6'9 guy playing the four. Tyrus hasn't really encountered problems either, since he's not a bad man defender and he's capable of doing most of the things that big men traditionally do well (blocks, rebounds, etc.).

[Coldchi]

I think it comes down to two things

1. who is smarter amare or tyrus so far it seems to be amare but his lack of defense is what makes him want to leave i dont know if thats going to help us as much as we think

2. can we resign amare i would almost refuse to do this deal unless amare resigns before the deal id hate to lose all this and amare to opt out and we be left with nothing

[Leslie Forman]

http://82games.com/ilardi2p.htm#table

I'm not sure how this helps Tyrus's case, when he's right smack between Pat Garrity and Brian Cardinal…

[Sonny_D1]

http://82games.com/ilardi2p.htm#table

I'm not sure how this helps Tyrus's case, when he's right smack between Pat Garrity and Brian Cardinal…

It doesn't. I was trying to give Camby a little bit of credit.

[Sonny_D1]

I'm all for getting Amare using any combination that excludes Rose. In fact, I'm on the Amare/Rose/Birdzilla bandwagon.

Magilla=Omer is like Sonny_D1=Birdzilla.

[Magilla_Gorilla]

I'm all for getting Amare using any combination that excludes Rose. In fact, I'm on the Amare/Rose/Birdzilla bandwagon.

Magilla=Omer is like Sonny_D1=Birdzilla.

Except that Omer would eat Andersons drug riddled soul.

[IliketheBullsNBearstoo]

I'm all for getting Amare using any combination that excludes Rose. In fact, I'm on the Amare/Rose/Birdzilla bandwagon.

Magilla=Omer is like Sonny_D1=Birdzilla.

Except that Omer would eat Andersons drug riddled soul.

haha! Oh no, now I see a birdzilla vs. Omer thread coming soon

[anorexorcism]

Bump

You know what, just forget it. I'm joining in this camp too.

Keep Tyrus.

[SportsWorld]

He's trade value is officially at it's highest. Keep Noah now.

[anorexorcism]

This is going to hurt man, I had dreamed of seeing this but never thought it would be used to move him. Hurts like a knife.

[SportsWorld]

I think our offer is looking good now. Tyrus/Gooden/Thabo/#1. We can probably keep Noah now.

[The ROY]

Nah..I'm good, Amare is my FAVORITE PF in the league but I'm riding with the kid...

I say keep him...if we trade him, I won't be mad though...

[cboksa]

I think our offer is looking good now. Tyrus/Gooden/Thabo/#1. We can probably keep Noah now.

replace tyrus and give them hinrich