Discussing Other Teams' Moves (Part III)

[LyricalRico]

^ The Spurs really need to get more depth next year, even if it means paying the luxury tax. Parker seems to be able to handle the minutes but they can't keep running Duncan and Ginobili into the ground like this.

[TheSecretWeapon]

^ The Spurs really need to get more depth next year, even if it means paying the luxury tax. Parker seems to be able to handle the minutes but they can't keep running Duncan and Ginobili into the ground like this.

I agree with you on the Spurs getting some more depth, but I'm not sure what you're talking about when it comes to minutes. For years, the Spurs have kept minutes down for their stars. Here's the Spurs top minute-getters since the 04-05 season with their league rank in minutes per game:

Code: Select all

Player          Tm      G       MP      MPG     LgRnk
Tim Duncan      SAS     374     12741   34.1    53
Tony Parker     SAS     372     12505   33.6    59
Bruce Bowen     SAS     401     11690   29.2    86
Manu Ginobili   SAS     332     9546    28.8    89



Duncan and Parker carry the biggest minutes burden, but each plays fewer than 35 minutes per game. This season, Duncan and Parker are each at 34.0 minutes per game, which is low for elite players.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

TSW, I think Duncan and Ginobili, and Kevin Garnett as well are all starting to break down under the wear and tear that comes with age. All have played extended seasons due to playoff and finals appearances, as well as international play.

Coincidentally, Realgm today posts a link to a Boston Herald article with Larry Bird's comments on Garnett's injuries being similar to ones he suffered towards the end of his career.

http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/bask ... rticleFull

Larry Bird: Ticket will get torn

Garnett, just over a month away from his 33rd birthday, is now at roughly the same age when Bird and McHale’s bodies started to break down.

But physical deterioration is not dictated simply by age, according to Bird. Style of play is one factor. And Garnett is one of the most passionate, driven players in the game.

“I see a lot of players in this league who never take a charge, and never bend over to grab a loose ball, and they seem to stick around a lot longer,” Bird said. “But (Garnett) is a player. He plays hard. He’s very aggressive. It’s gonna catch up with you sooner or later.”

But after last season, when Garnett played 987 playoff minutes - essentially a third of his career playoff total of 2,990 - the extra stress from 26 playoff games has likely taken a toll.

Bird speaks from experience.

“It was a good problem in my eyes,” he said. “We went to the Finals four years in a row, and we didn’t have any time to recover in the summer.

“Where most guys get four months, we got 2 at the most, and we paid the price for it,” said Bird. “I thought, ‘Wow, I played the equivalent of two extra seasons in that time.’

“I’ll tell you this - there’s a lot of guys who don’t make the playoffs who have lasted a lot longer in the league than we did.”

I see Duncan, Ginobili, Garnett, and even Kobe Bryant all starting to show signs of wear and tear to be expected from the mileage they have on them and their style of play.

[TheSecretWeapon]

I agree that the guys you mention are showing signs of wear and tear -- they've all been in the league for many years. The wear & tear is to be expected. I was responding to the notion that the Spurs are somehow running their big three into the ground. In fact, the Spurs have been intentional about limiting their minutes. Duncan hasn't played more than 35 minutes in 5 years. Tony Parker's career high in minutes per game was 34.4 back in 02-03. Ginobili has played more than 30 minutes per game in a season just once in his career. Contrast that with Garnett, who played 39+ minutes a night every year basically his entire career until he got to Boston. Or Kobe, who's been getting 39-40 minutes a night his entire career.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Yes, and I think LR would (after seeing your post) agree Popovich has not run them in the ground.

Quite the opposite.

Their success and years and style of play has worn them down. Popovich saving 5-6 minutes a game won't undue that.

[LyricalRico]

Yes, and I think LR would (after seeing your post) agree Popovich has not run them in the ground.

Never!

Maybe "running into the ground" was the wrong choice of words. But I think you have to acknowledge that saying somebody is playing too many minutes is relative. Just because somebody plays less minutes than somebody else doesn't mean that they aren't still playing too many minutes for them. Manu plays both sides of the ball like a wild man and Duncan is typically pounding against the other team's best big on defense whille fighting double teams on offense. In thier cases 34 minutes could still be too much.

I'm just saying, if they had better second and third options they could afford to play their guys even less. Even if it's not every game. Maybe it's taking off back-to-back's every so often or being able to sit a few extra minutes against a bad team. All of that can add up to being healthier come playoff time. If you asked Pop if he'd rather have Manu out for the playoffs or having a quality backup 2/3 who took some of Manu's minutes during the season and prevented the stress fracture, which do you think he would pick?

[TheSecretWeapon]

Rico -- What you're talking about is unrealistic. The Spurs finding a backup who's almost as good as Duncan is not going to happen. Same with Parker. Same with Ginobili. I think Popovich has done a marvelous job of shaving minutes here and there, even sacrificing some regular season wins to give these guys more years on the back end of their careers.

The Ginobili thing is a false choice. How few minutes should he be playing? He got only 26.8 minutes per game this season. Roger Mason is getting 30. Michael Finley is getting 28.7. There's only so much a coach can protect a guy. At some point, he has to play.

[LyricalRico]

The Ginobili thing is a false choice. How few minutes should he be playing? He got only 26.8 minutes per game this season.

Sorry, I didn't realize his minutes were already so low. Point conceded.

[fugop]

The Heat's lineup tonight is terrible offensively: Wade--Chalmers--Diawara--Moon--O'Neal.

[lupin]

The Ginobili thing is a false choice. How few minutes should he be playing? He got only 26.8 minutes per game this season.

Sorry, I didn't realize his minutes were already so low. Point conceded.

LR conceded a point. HoF post!

[LyricalRico]

^ I knew I'd get a HOF post one way or another!

[nate33]

San Antonio Trades:
Bruce Bowen ($4M half of which is guaranteed)
Fabricio Oberto ($3.8M half of which is guaranteed)
Michael Finley ($2.5M)
$3M cash
rights to Tiago Splitter

Washington Trades:
Antawn Jamison ($11.6M)

Washington buys out Finley for $1M (and he resigns with San Antonio for $1.5M)
Washington cuts Oberto (and eats $1.9M in guaranteed money)
Washington cuts Bowen (and eats $2M in guaranteed money)

Jamison is off the books and it only cost Abe $1.9M in cash outlay. We'd be carrying $4.4M in phantom cap holds though the remainder of the season, but that's not enough to put us over the luxtax.

None of this would be possible unless the Wizards first bought out Etan and James to generate the roster slots. Let's say they're bought out for $1M less than their contracts are worth. The Wizards would be WAY under the luxtax with a lean and mean roster:

PG Arenas/Crittenton
SG Young/Stevenson
SF Butler/DMac
PF Blatche/Songaila/Pecherov
C Haywood/McGee

Additional assets: Top 4 pick, #33 pick, Rights to Splitter

[closg00]

San Antonio Trades:
Bruce Bowen ($4M half of which is guaranteed)
Fabricio Oberto ($3.8M half of which is guaranteed)
Michael Finley ($2.5M)
$3M cash
rights to Tiago Splitter

Washington Trades:
Antawn Jamison ($11.6M)

Washington buys out Finley for $1M (and he resigns with San Antonio for $1.5M)
Washington cuts Oberto (and eats $1.9M in guaranteed money)
Washington cuts Bowen (and eats $2M in guaranteed money)

Jamison is off the books and it only cost Abe $1.9M in cash outlay. We'd be carrying $4.4M in phantom cap holds though the remainder of the season, but that's not enough to put us over the luxtax.

None of this would be possible unless the Wizards first bought out Etan and James to generate the roster slots. Let's say they're bought out for $1M less than their contracts are worth. The Wizards would be WAY under the luxtax with a lean and mean roster:

PG Arenas/Crittenton
SG Young/Stevenson
SF Butler/DMac
PF Blatche/Songaila/Pecherov
C Haywood/McGee

Additional assets: Top 4 pick, #33 pick, Rights to Splitter

No-way they give up Splitter for AJ, No-way. SA is already wearing-down, they need youth & Splitter is a stud.

[LyricalRico]

^ From what I've read Splitter might not ever come over so I don't think he should be a deal breaker for either team. I'd rather have a 2010 first round pick and the Spurs would probably be agreeable to that.

The real question is will the Spurs want to put themselves on the hook for luxury tax payments in the last two years of Jamison's deal. They already have depth problems. If the tax threshold actually falls as far as some think, they'll be way over for the last two years of Jamison's deal (assuming they re-sign Manu).

[fugop]

To state the obvious, if 20+ teams are paying the luxury tax, the arrangement will be changed. There's no way owners would tolerate that much of a subsidy, basically, to rebuilding teams.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

San Antonio Trades:
Bruce Bowen ($4M half of which is guaranteed)
Fabricio Oberto ($3.8M half of which is guaranteed)
Michael Finley ($2.5M)
$3M cash
rights to Tiago Splitter

Washington Trades:
Antawn Jamison ($11.6M)

Washington buys out Finley for $1M (and he resigns with San Antonio for $1.5M)
Washington cuts Oberto (and eats $1.9M in guaranteed money)
Washington cuts Bowen (and eats $2M in guaranteed money)

Jamison is off the books and it only cost Abe $1.9M in cash outlay. We'd be carrying $4.4M in phantom cap holds though the remainder of the season, but that's not enough to put us over the luxtax.

None of this would be possible unless the Wizards first bought out Etan and James to generate the roster slots. Let's say they're bought out for $1M less than their contracts are worth. The Wizards would be WAY under the luxtax with a lean and mean roster:

PG Arenas/Crittenton
SG Young/Stevenson
SF Butler/DMac
PF Blatche/Songaila/Pecherov
C Haywood/McGee

Additional assets: Top 4 pick, #33 pick, Rights to Splitter

Deal as far as I'm concerned.

If Splitter's the sticking point, why not just get the rights to James Gist plus a SA round 2 pick (basically a camp invite who'd probably get cut). The Spurs drafted Gist. They wanted Mason before he came to the Wizards. I trust their scouts. Gist is about the same size as Jamison and was a real decent defender and a great athlete at UMCP.

What do you think?

[LyricalRico]

I wouldn't do Gist and a low SA second. It would have to be Gist and a 2010 first.

[nate33]

No-way they give up Splitter for AJ, No-way. SA is already wearing-down, they need youth & Splitter is a stud.

My thinking isn't that they need youth. What they need is more top shelf talent since Duncan, Ginobili and Parker are getting too old to carry the load. This gives them one more stud player and they give up absolutely nothing. They can even sign Bowen and Finley back if they want to.

It doesn't hurt their luxtax situation much either. They might creep over the luxtax next year, but it's clear sailing after that. That's not much to pay in order to put together one last title run. The only real drawback is that it eliminates any possibility of a major free agent acquisition in 2010.

I think it's a good deal for San Antonio. The real question is if it's the best deal. They might be better off trading Splitter and 2010 expirings for guys like Carter and Rasheed Wallace.

[Dat2U]

Rico -- What you're talking about is unrealistic. The Spurs finding a backup who's almost as good as Duncan is not going to happen. Same with Parker. Same with Ginobili. I think Popovich has done a marvelous job of shaving minutes here and there, even sacrificing some regular season wins to give these guys more years on the back end of their careers.

The Ginobili thing is a false choice. How few minutes should he be playing? He got only 26.8 minutes per game this season. Roger Mason is getting 30. Michael Finley is getting 28.7. There's only so much a coach can protect a guy. At some point, he has to play.

What doomed Ginobili was not the minutes he got in San Antonio. It was all the additional wear and tear he got this past summer playing for Argentina in the Olympics.

In fact, its seems like the body simply wasn't made to play competitive basketball for 11 out of 12 months of the year. You need time to rest and recuperate and at Ginobili's age and penchant for being a bit fragile, it seems like it was only natural that he'd break down at some point.

[LyricalRico]

^ Okay, I was wrong. Can we move on? Sheesh!