Hall Of Fame Misses
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Hall Of Fame Misses
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Hall Of Fame Misses
I think we have a good level of knowledgeable folks around here that have a solid eye for prospects BUT nobody is perfect and we all have had our complete prospect misses. This is the thread where you can post up some of the major misses on prospect predictions. Find some of your favorite misses or post your own.
Find the quote, post the quote, but it needs to be something substantial, I will reserve the right to delete whatever doesn't make the cut.
Find the quote, post the quote, but it needs to be something substantial, I will reserve the right to delete whatever doesn't make the cut.
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Sometimes silence is the best thing you can contribute to a conversation
after what he did to Moses Moody's name, I got DJ K. Perk in a Verzuz battle against ANYBODY
Sometimes silence is the best thing you can contribute to a conversation
after what he did to Moses Moody's name, I got DJ K. Perk in a Verzuz battle against ANYBODY
Re: Hall Of Fame Misses
- GimmeDat
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Re: Hall Of Fame Misses
I think every year I've learnt the nuances of prospect analysis more and more, and it's always a case of adapting to league trends and what's successful as well.
I only really got in to the NBA draft stuff around the 2014 draft when I was still in school. I think in that class, I don't think I had any major misses, but there were a couple i miscalcuated.
2014
Nick Stauskas -
Adreian Payne -
All in all, I don't really look at these misses with much disdain, was my first real year getting in to it and I definitely learnt a lot from it.
2015
Devin Booker -
I don't think anyone else really stands out in this class that I stuffed up on. I thought Stanley Johnson would be a bit better than he is. I think I was pretty high on Porzingis from memory, I remember being a massive fan when he I saw him brought up as a possible sleeper for the 2014 draft, so I think I avoided that miss a bit.
2016
Timothe Luwawu -
Dragan Bender -
Skal Labissiere -
Ivica Zubac -
Demetrius Jackson -
There's so many others in this draft it's not worth going in depth with them.. it was just a crap-shoot of a draft and I think everyone struggled a bit evaluating this one. Deyonta Davis, Marqueese Chriss were risk/reward guys I justified taking in the lottery due to sheer raw upside (actually Davis was at 15 for me).
2017
I feel pretty good about my assessment of this class at this stage. Obviously helps that it was such a strong class and it's easier to identify the guys you loved that disappointed than the guys you hated that broke out.
Obviously Fultz is struggling, but I still maintain that if his jumper was at the level as it was in college, he'd be a stud and worthy of the #1 pick right now. The rest of his game has translated, sans that the jumper helped further open up his other tools as a player. Makes a massive difference.
Bam Adebayo -
Kyle Kuzma -
Few other guys I was bit off with.. J.Collins I thought had an impressive ceiling, and to be fair I did end up having him at 14 which I think is pretty fair, but I thought he played no D and I wasn't really buying the shot potential, so I thought he had a lot of developing to become a plus player - turns out both those facets are probably better than it appeared in college.
I didn't have the balls to put Mitchell above any of the established top freshman, but I was super high on him, and did have him above guys like Markkanen even, so I won't count that as a miss.
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All in all, I think I've had a pretty good track record, but it's really great practice to consider the guys you missed and more importantly, why you were wrong. I think every year we're sharpening our evaluations, and it's a constant process so long as the NBA keeps evolving.
I only really got in to the NBA draft stuff around the 2014 draft when I was still in school. I think in that class, I don't think I had any major misses, but there were a couple i miscalcuated.
2014
Nick Stauskas -
Spoiler:
Adreian Payne -
Spoiler:
All in all, I don't really look at these misses with much disdain, was my first real year getting in to it and I definitely learnt a lot from it.
2015
Devin Booker -
Spoiler:
I don't think anyone else really stands out in this class that I stuffed up on. I thought Stanley Johnson would be a bit better than he is. I think I was pretty high on Porzingis from memory, I remember being a massive fan when he I saw him brought up as a possible sleeper for the 2014 draft, so I think I avoided that miss a bit.
2016
Timothe Luwawu -
Spoiler:
Dragan Bender -
Spoiler:
Skal Labissiere -
Spoiler:
Ivica Zubac -
Spoiler:
Demetrius Jackson -
Spoiler:
There's so many others in this draft it's not worth going in depth with them.. it was just a crap-shoot of a draft and I think everyone struggled a bit evaluating this one. Deyonta Davis, Marqueese Chriss were risk/reward guys I justified taking in the lottery due to sheer raw upside (actually Davis was at 15 for me).
2017
I feel pretty good about my assessment of this class at this stage. Obviously helps that it was such a strong class and it's easier to identify the guys you loved that disappointed than the guys you hated that broke out.
Obviously Fultz is struggling, but I still maintain that if his jumper was at the level as it was in college, he'd be a stud and worthy of the #1 pick right now. The rest of his game has translated, sans that the jumper helped further open up his other tools as a player. Makes a massive difference.
Bam Adebayo -
Spoiler:
Kyle Kuzma -
Spoiler:
Few other guys I was bit off with.. J.Collins I thought had an impressive ceiling, and to be fair I did end up having him at 14 which I think is pretty fair, but I thought he played no D and I wasn't really buying the shot potential, so I thought he had a lot of developing to become a plus player - turns out both those facets are probably better than it appeared in college.
I didn't have the balls to put Mitchell above any of the established top freshman, but I was super high on him, and did have him above guys like Markkanen even, so I won't count that as a miss.
-
All in all, I think I've had a pretty good track record, but it's really great practice to consider the guys you missed and more importantly, why you were wrong. I think every year we're sharpening our evaluations, and it's a constant process so long as the NBA keeps evolving.
Re: Hall Of Fame Misses
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Re: Hall Of Fame Misses
I'm not motivated to find the post, but I do recall using the term "perfect 3rd guard" to describe Seth Curry when he was at Davidson.
"A common mistake that people make when trying to design something completely foolproof is to underestimate the ingenuity of complete fools." - Douglas Adams
Re: Hall Of Fame Misses
- clyde21
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Re: Hall Of Fame Misses
I had Luka as the 7th best prospect last year. Two guys I had above him as Isaac Bonga and Dzanan Musa.
I'm surprised I'm allowed to show my face round these parts
I'm surprised I'm allowed to show my face round these parts
Re: Hall Of Fame Misses
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Re: Hall Of Fame Misses
clyde21 wrote:I had Luka as the 7th best prospect last year. Two guys I had above him as Isaac Bonga and Dzanan Musa.
I'm surprised I'm allowed to show my face round these parts
It's good you got in front of it like this though. I may be forced to do the same here soon if Josh Jackson don't get his shtuff together.
Watch More Basketball
Sometimes silence is the best thing you can contribute to a conversation
after what he did to Moses Moody's name, I got DJ K. Perk in a Verzuz battle against ANYBODY
Sometimes silence is the best thing you can contribute to a conversation
after what he did to Moses Moody's name, I got DJ K. Perk in a Verzuz battle against ANYBODY
Re: Hall Of Fame Misses
- Domejandro
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Re: Hall Of Fame Misses
No quote since it was pre-RealGM for me, but I commented that Damian Lillard was the "next Jarrett Jack", defending it by saying "I mean, I really like Jarrett Jack". I thought Damian Lillard would cap as a fringe-starter, but quality back-up Point-Guard type player.
Re: Hall Of Fame Misses
- UcanUwill
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Re: Hall Of Fame Misses
clyde21 wrote:I had Luka as the 7th best prospect last year. Two guys I had above him as Isaac Bonga and Dzanan Musa.
I'm surprised I'm allowed to show my face round these parts
Thats just insane.
Re: Hall Of Fame Misses
- clyde21
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Re: Hall Of Fame Misses
UcanUwill wrote:clyde21 wrote:I had Luka as the 7th best prospect last year. Two guys I had above him as Isaac Bonga and Dzanan Musa.
I'm surprised I'm allowed to show my face round these parts
Thats just insane.
yeah it's terrible. I'm pretty bad with international prospects honestly...and don't really understand the levels of competition there.
I still believe in Bonga/Musa though, but Doncic is making me look like an idiot.
Re: Hall Of Fame Misses
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Re: Hall Of Fame Misses
clyde21 wrote:UcanUwill wrote:clyde21 wrote:I had Luka as the 7th best prospect last year. Two guys I had above him as Isaac Bonga and Dzanan Musa.
I'm surprised I'm allowed to show my face round these parts
Thats just insane.
yeah it's terrible. I'm pretty bad with international prospects honestly...and don't really understand the levels of competition there.
I still believe in Bonga/Musa though, but Doncic is making me look like an idiot.
yeah, I like Musa quite a bit, I am very surprised Kuruks playing over him, kuruks wasn't anywhere on my radar. Anyway, Musa was basically poor mans version of Doncic in Europe, he was playing on much worse team in a far worse league.
Re: Hall Of Fame Misses
- clyde21
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Re: Hall Of Fame Misses
UcanUwill wrote:clyde21 wrote:UcanUwill wrote:
Thats just insane.
yeah it's terrible. I'm pretty bad with international prospects honestly...and don't really understand the levels of competition there.
I still believe in Bonga/Musa though, but Doncic is making me look like an idiot.
yeah, I like Musa quite a bit, I am very surprised Kuruks playing over him, kuruks wasn't anywhere on my radar. Anyway, Musa was basically poor mans version of Doncic in Europe, he was playing on much worse team in a far worse league.
yup, that's what I didn't really understand.
but I did have Sexton and SGA above Young last year too, so I'm hoping that balances things out a bit.
Re: Hall Of Fame Misses
- PerkinsFor3
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Re: Hall Of Fame Misses
Was a big fan of Ben Mclemore, Jason Thompson and Ed Davis and even though the last two have had decent careers, I expected more.
Re: Hall Of Fame Misses
- HeatBeast
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Re: Hall Of Fame Misses
Jahlil Okafor was my biggest miss by far. I thought he was going to be the next Tim Duncan. And by the looks of just his rookie season alone, I had a feeling that such a comparison would come into fruition.
But unfortunately, that went haywire real quick. By this point of Duncan's career, 4th season, Duncan had already established himself as one of the best players in the world, won a championship with a Finals MVP nod, and was a bonafide regular season MVP candidate. Topped off by being an all-star/NBA/defense team member consistently.
Meanwhile, Okafor has yet to even sniff a single all-star game, let alone cement himself as an NBA starting bigman.
But unfortunately, that went haywire real quick. By this point of Duncan's career, 4th season, Duncan had already established himself as one of the best players in the world, won a championship with a Finals MVP nod, and was a bonafide regular season MVP candidate. Topped off by being an all-star/NBA/defense team member consistently.
Meanwhile, Okafor has yet to even sniff a single all-star game, let alone cement himself as an NBA starting bigman.
Boban > Wilt
Re: Hall Of Fame Misses
- bondom34
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Re: Hall Of Fame Misses
Derrick Williams was mine. Thought after the tourney he was for sure a star. Also liked Justin Anderson and Kennard a lot more recently. Historically the Thunder's 2008 draft was panned by some here.
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Re: Hall Of Fame Misses
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Re: Hall Of Fame Misses
I was very wrong about how Ntilikina's offense would translate. Thought he'd be a good, versatile offensive player and now you have to hope that his offense becomes at least good enough to justify minutes for his defense.
I totally get why scouts and executives are more wary of international prospects, simply because we have less and sometimes no solid points of reference. Doncic was different because he was doing his things against competition we know was a step above college – but the national leagues, youth leagues and youth tournaments are often really tough to gauge properly.
NCAA is just much more familiar and players are much easier to compare (to peers as well as historical examples).
I totally get why scouts and executives are more wary of international prospects, simply because we have less and sometimes no solid points of reference. Doncic was different because he was doing his things against competition we know was a step above college – but the national leagues, youth leagues and youth tournaments are often really tough to gauge properly.
NCAA is just much more familiar and players are much easier to compare (to peers as well as historical examples).
Re: Hall Of Fame Misses
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Re: Hall Of Fame Misses
In hindsight, this thread is funny to read:
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1182036
It is about AD's scoring potential.
edit: I hope posting stuff like this to have some more activity is okay, @Marcus, even though it's not exactly what the thread description is absout. Otherwise feel free to delete this and let me know.
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1182036
It is about AD's scoring potential.
edit: I hope posting stuff like this to have some more activity is okay, @Marcus, even though it's not exactly what the thread description is absout. Otherwise feel free to delete this and let me know.
Re: Hall Of Fame Misses
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Re: Hall Of Fame Misses
The-Power wrote:In hindsight, this thread is funny to read:
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1182036
It is about AD's scoring potential.
edit: I hope posting stuff like this to have some more activity is okay, @Marcus, even though it's not exactly what the thread description is absout. Otherwise feel free to delete this and let me know.
Its good.
Watch More Basketball
Sometimes silence is the best thing you can contribute to a conversation
after what he did to Moses Moody's name, I got DJ K. Perk in a Verzuz battle against ANYBODY
Sometimes silence is the best thing you can contribute to a conversation
after what he did to Moses Moody's name, I got DJ K. Perk in a Verzuz battle against ANYBODY
Re: Hall Of Fame Misses
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Re: Hall Of Fame Misses
The-Power wrote:In hindsight, this thread is funny to read:
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1182036
It is about AD's scoring potential.
edit: I hope posting stuff like this to have some more activity is okay, @Marcus, even though it's not exactly what the thread description is absout. Otherwise feel free to delete this and let me know.
Development matters so much on these things.
Re: Hall Of Fame Misses
- eminence
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Re: Hall Of Fame Misses
Wasn't really doing too much of this at the time, but Denzel Valentine as a top 5 guy probably wouldn't look great.
I bought a boat.
Re: Hall Of Fame Misses
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Re: Hall Of Fame Misses
I tend to remember my misses more clearly than my hits, so there are quite a few of these. Not sure how many of them are on the forum though.
Derrick Williams - I thought he'd be Michael Beasley with his head on straight.
Chris Singleton - Thought he'd be a lockdown defender and a great 3&D player.
Jimmy Butler - Like many, I thought he'd be a role player.
Perry Jones - Knew he had motor issues, but thought his combo of athleticism and size was too great to pass up. Clearly not.
Ben McLemore - Had him as the best prospect in '13, touted him as the new Ray Allen. 42% 3PT, 87% FT and super explosive.
Andrew Wiggins - Thought he'd be an All-Defensive caliber defender and a perennial All-Star.
Mario Hezonja - Touted him as the new Klay Thompson.
Emmanuel Mudiay - Thought he had more potential than anyone not named Towns.
Markelle Fultz - Had him as the best prospect in '17. I do feel cheated on this one though, the Fultz at UW was a different player.
Josh Jackson - Comparing him to Jimmy Butler and Kawhi Leonard clearly was a terrible idea.
De'Aaron Fox - Not in the sense that I was low on him, but I definitely wasn't high on him enough. Had Fultz, Lonzo and DSJ ahead.
Frank Ntilikina - Definitely did not expect him to be this bad offensively. Thought he'd at least be able to shoot 3s consistently.
John Collins - Thought his skillset didn't fit the current NBA and he'd be out of the league quickly.
However, my most embarrassing draft moment is harshly criticising the Warriors for picking Klay Thompson in '11. I wasn't low on him as a prospect, but I thought the fit was bad. Thought a backcourt with Steph and Klay would be disastruous defensively. Klay turning out to be far better on defense than I expected changed everything.
To give myself some sort of credit, Kawhi Leonard was the player I thought the Warriors should've gone with. Still, inexcusable reasoning.
Derrick Williams - I thought he'd be Michael Beasley with his head on straight.
Chris Singleton - Thought he'd be a lockdown defender and a great 3&D player.
Jimmy Butler - Like many, I thought he'd be a role player.
Perry Jones - Knew he had motor issues, but thought his combo of athleticism and size was too great to pass up. Clearly not.
Ben McLemore - Had him as the best prospect in '13, touted him as the new Ray Allen. 42% 3PT, 87% FT and super explosive.
Andrew Wiggins - Thought he'd be an All-Defensive caliber defender and a perennial All-Star.
Mario Hezonja - Touted him as the new Klay Thompson.
Emmanuel Mudiay - Thought he had more potential than anyone not named Towns.
Markelle Fultz - Had him as the best prospect in '17. I do feel cheated on this one though, the Fultz at UW was a different player.
Josh Jackson - Comparing him to Jimmy Butler and Kawhi Leonard clearly was a terrible idea.
De'Aaron Fox - Not in the sense that I was low on him, but I definitely wasn't high on him enough. Had Fultz, Lonzo and DSJ ahead.
Frank Ntilikina - Definitely did not expect him to be this bad offensively. Thought he'd at least be able to shoot 3s consistently.
John Collins - Thought his skillset didn't fit the current NBA and he'd be out of the league quickly.
However, my most embarrassing draft moment is harshly criticising the Warriors for picking Klay Thompson in '11. I wasn't low on him as a prospect, but I thought the fit was bad. Thought a backcourt with Steph and Klay would be disastruous defensively. Klay turning out to be far better on defense than I expected changed everything.
To give myself some sort of credit, Kawhi Leonard was the player I thought the Warriors should've gone with. Still, inexcusable reasoning.
Re: Hall Of Fame Misses
- bondom34
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Re: Hall Of Fame Misses
Just a thought that ran through my head but any comparisons of Doncic and Hedo.
http://bkref.com/tiny/7bALj
Doncic has similar to better numbers at 19 than peak Hedo.
http://bkref.com/tiny/7bALj
Doncic has similar to better numbers at 19 than peak Hedo.
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