Scoring Assist Differential - Breaking Down The Kobe Laker E

[indiefan23]

i usually bash kobe but this thread is stupid give the man his due.

Why's it stupid? I think saying congratulations you deserve your championship is giving him his due, no?

[indiefan23]

Its funny tho, every single player who came and left kobe's team had significantly better % with. Of course some of them are out of the NBA and can't even sniff much time. I wonder how good kobe's team could have been if they could play defense like Iverson's 76ers , LeBron's cavs etc.

You mean like, when they went 15 games over .500 once Kobe realized he was untradeable and stopped chucking shots with the same core of players? Maybe you should actually read the whole article.

[indiefan23]

kobe has not been inefficient for most of his career.

and he is obviously truly great.

Most of his career without Shaq he was. I think he can't claim all-timey greatness because he spent his prime killing his teams and being served crushing defeats. Greats carry their teams and make them overachive and Kobe has never done that.

[Speedlot]

haha.. Another hate on kobe.

LOL AT HIM trying to justify SMUSH and Brown. Really? Moron? SMUSH isn't even in the league right now. Smush said "wade is nicer". Then miami dumped him.

The messiah Jordan didn't make Brown better. Hater article is phail.

He was discussing the 33 win team KOBE had. ERm... How about your coach calling in sick on you? Does that matter? Injuries?

The was Wade/Odom/Caron team had ODOM as the best player. HE lead them in the playoffs
Why not mention what Wade did with his team 2 years ago? FAILED with Shaq and whatnots? Cus he got injured? Boohoo.

Wade has argubly the best stats last year as an SG, yet his team didn't even touch 50 wins. Is WADE a stat Padder omg?

Lebron has a godly playoff run. Yet his team got man handled by Orlando. Because ghasp.. Lebron is a bottom feeder. Beating out crappy teams in fashion, and getting owned by real TEAMS.

It's funny how he says "Lakers is suppose to win' in certain games. Thing is they had 65+ wins this year. Does that suggest they could've gotten 75? Does that suggest they won games they weren't suppose to?

I don't understand how you can JUSTIFY Kobe being bad, when the Lakers just won the DAMN title.

" The Laker's were 33-3 this year when Kobe shot less than 20 shots. Its obvious he kills ball movement when he ball hogs and kills everyone else's rhythm as well. When he feeds his immensely talented team the ball they flourish."

And the Lakers are 32-14 when he shoots over 20 shots? Hey look, that ratio is better than LMAO WADE. 50 win team.

Kobe - .49
Jordan - .50
Johnson- .53

eFG

KOBE shot threes. Lots of it.
Johnson > Jordan > Kobe then?

[indiefan23]

Solid article. Obviously the guy doesn't like Kobe, but the stats don't lie.

At 19 Kobe told t-mac that he was already better then Jordan, he was going to crush him.

What a load of crap and he has bad grammar too.

Kobe said it, why's it a load of crap? Because one letter out of 20,000 is wrong? ;0

[indiefan23]

Also he was wrong about the Hea't run with rookie Wade. They beat the Hornets in the first round, then lost to the league-leading Pacers in the second round, who lost to the Pistons in the conference finals, who won the title over the Lakers.

Which part was wrong???

[Malinhion]

It said they went to the conference finals when he was a rookie.

[indiefan23]

" The Laker's were 33-3 this year when Kobe shot less than 20 shots. Its obvious he kills ball movement when he ball hogs and kills everyone else's rhythm as well.

I'm not really interested in arguing about it with people who aren't going to be rational and objective. Thanks for adding to the accuracy meter though. And hey, thanks for agreeing with the main point of the whole article!!

[indiefan23]

It said they went to the conference finals when he was a rookie.

Says almost I'm pretty sure. That series was tight as I remember but they were overcome by a team that was just more experienced and had a much better bench. That heat team was quality though. They had a serious core. If they stayed together, I think Wade still does serious damage and has a clear shot at the same title. Love Wade... fantastic player.

[indiefan23]

"I can feel your anger. Give in to your hatred. Good, good!"

Ha, is that directed at me? That's hilarious. That article is not really motivated by hate though. Heh, 'n honestly, when I saw Kobe in the finals 'trying' to play unselfishly... I dunno, I kind of related to him accepting his attitude has stunk and there was a better way. Who do you think sat him down and crushed his ego. My super conspiracy theory. Phil got Jordan to come in, tell him how all the bs he was doing was killing his career and MJ broke his ego in about 2 minutes flat. Something happened though that actually got through to Kobe.

[indiefan23]

There are some truths to his conclusion, but there are also times that Kobe shot a lot during a Laker loss because no one aside from him could create. It certainly does not change the fact that he has been inefficient for most of his career, though there are games where the team offense fails and Kobe had to take over.

Cept Kobe didn't really create, and if he did he was absolutely not consistent. But you're not dumb though, so I appriciate your input. There are those times but I really don't believe that Kobe tries to score lots in response to them. He just tries to score lots all the time.

What is highly questionable is the following. He directed every loss at Kobe for shooting, well, Wade scored 55 on the Magic and lost by 20, should I say then if Wade let his teammates scored more they would have won? Kobe didn't have Wade's efficiency, but that doesn't take away that it could be a misguided conclusion, maybe they would have lost anyways if Kobe shared the ball. Who knows? Even on those 'quality wins' he has to cite reasons other than Kobe for the cause of winning. The author credits the Lakers win on the other team shooting badly, then conveniently ignore the non-existent D against the Bobcats and the Grizzles(38 FTA for both teams).

Hmm... wade never scored 55, 50, but thats just semantics. In that game his teammates shot 20, 33, 14 and 40 percent. Thats how a stat line should look. And in that game Wade still only took 30 shots. I dont' think the stat really is misguided as it shows a trend, not individual games. Those games were just examples and honestly were chosen arbitrarily. I took his top 10 games and examined the two best and worst results.

The argument I was addressing was that Kobe's scoring was what won them games and what was needed. Dallas shot 13% from the arc and was a very good 3 shooting team. Dallas played a horrible game. The other the rockets were without their best player and the other one they lost. Its a pretty accurate portrayal I think.

Then you get to the part where he says Kobe had help and he has the guts to include Cook and Smush. He concluded that they didn't work out in LA was all because Kobe couldn't develop young talents. First, MJ may have done something to make Pippen to become the player that everyone will remember him by, but he must have the will to work for it, and to put everything on MJ for Scottie's accomplishments is utterly foolish. Cook and Smush have never been players that follow coach's orders well, and their work ethic are pretty bad for pro players. Was Kobe also responsible for Smush hitting a valet? Was Kobe responsible for an out of shape Cook buried on a very shallow Orlando bench? They're adults, not babies. If they can't find playing time elsewhere then that means they didn't work hard enough. There is only so much a star player can do, everything else is up to the role player if he wants to step up.

Hmm... Jordan didn't totally make Pippen, I love the guy and he gets oodles of credit, but Kobe really hasn't developed any players. Smush is just an example and Kobe was pissed with LA for getting players who needed work like Smush. I think he took it out on him and it caused a rift. I was nto saying they were all stars, but they wern't terrible either. Over 3 years, they should not have been 3 games under .500. Its underachievement when you've got a guy who's arguably the best player in the league, and 1-2 top shelf players on your team. And its not just Pippen. Jordan won with the same guys getting better each year on his team and then took them to 3 titles. Of course Smush had something to do with it but seriously, the guy got minutes and responded with good numbers and then his star player started to get down on him and his play went down. I'm not blaming the guy with way less talent for losing or for lacking the maturity. Everyone in LA seems to just get sick of it after a few years and tunes out.

That second to the last paragraph also deserves a laugh, he mentioned guys like Kareem, Magic, West, MJ, and Lebron on how they always make the talent around them better and was never held back by them. This was written after Mo Williams finished the Magic series with 37% shooting and neither Big Ben or Z played any form of defense against Dwight and Rashard. To me, this sounds like someone who doesn't like Kobe and try to disguise it with an objective approach. Kobe should certainly have a better assist conversion rate if he is truly great, but there are so many sections of the article that are either questionable or downright false it's not worth reading unless you need to feed your hatred for Kobe.

Those guys couldn't match up with the Magic. You explain to me how Z or Ben are going to stop either of them? Shard can easily shoot over them and Dwight can easily overpower them. Mo didn't play well either. I think its totally apt though... should that team be contending for a championship in the east finals? No. They probably squeak in without Bron and go out in the first round. He lifted them up.

As for the things that are downright false, I'd honestly love to hear them. Cheers.

[indiefan23]

Solid article, now before I do anything:

Bookmarked, indiefan, if you find anymore relevant to this player, you post them.


Thanks

Hey, cool man, if you like the analysis you should subscribe. I wrote the article and created the stat... wanted to see if I was on to something so I thought I'd subject it to the hatred of Kobe's fans. Thanks again for the props!

[Frosty]

Nice! I'm glad we agree on something frosty, even if we don't agree on old schoolers. ;0 but to be honest, I appreciate your input on the era debate. Thats the kind of stuff I come to places like this for.

Yah me too. Always looking to get challenged and hopefully learn more. I'll even admit you're wrong on Wilt.

[An Unbiased Fan]

Stat is inaccurate because it doesn't take into account ball movement, and FG attempts based on score. Nor does it actually have any correlation to winning or player production.

[TrueLAfan]

From a statistical point of view, it's a limited analysis. It doesn't take into the account the way either individuals or teams score and set up to score their points, or how well individuals functions as primary ballhandlers within a system. A player that has gets a proportionately higher number of assists In 2005 and after, Kobe averaged getting about 23% of his team's assists; LeBron had over 35% last year. That's close to a 50% difference. AI is even higher. Someone like Nique is far lower. That's such a huge difference in the way an individual players works within a team offense that it makes an analysis like this very shaky from the get go.

Then there's the difference in team offensive strategy itself. In the last three years (i.e. "Phil's Back), the Lakers have averaged 15% more assists per game than they did in the two years before. A shift in team offense can result in wild differences in both total assists and, causally, the individuals that produce them. (This, then is related to the reason above.) If an offense is geared toward a primary scorer with an minimum of secondary passing (or with one and only one primary distributor), it will affect the amount of secondary passing by the primary scorer. There is far too great of a variance within strategies to make equitable comparisons between teams and individuals on them.

Then there's the sample size issue. Even a guy like Dominique Wilkins only scored 40 or more points 45 times in 1074 games. That gives a confidence interval (in layman's terms, margin for error) of +/- over 14%, which is very high for any sort of analysis. In essence, that means that it can't be predictive or comparative because there's just too small of a group to make an accurate analysis from.

One way of checking into and complicating (in a good way) some of these issues is to look at field goal attempts rather than percentage. As noted, Kobe's FG% differential in +40 pt. games is the smallest here...my guess is that other players didn't really take many, if any more shots in the their high scoring games. This isn't really addressed here, except to say that "Kobe seem to be the most selfish. Of all time? No hate, but maybe. He's a great scorer but appears to pad his stats by ignoring his teammates as his dimes continuously drop as points increase." The more accurate conclusion is that Kobe takes more shots in his high scoring games...but if that's his designated role with the offense (or if it's his decision to take that role)...then it's not selfish unless it somehow undermines the team. Since 2005, the Lakers are .647 (44-24) when Kobe scores 40 or more, and .593 (199-143) when he scores less. I'm neither a Kobe fan nor a hater, but if a player's team wins more when he, as the primary scorer, scores 35% more and gets credit for an assist 35% less often, I don't think selfishness has anything to do with it.

Differences of that magnitude render an analysis like this moot as a real statistical tool, but interesting for comparing how/why high scoring players function the way they do, and the relative effectiveness in terms of team success...which is much more complex question, and would require considerably more study and analysis.

[WesWesley]

I find it funny that people are calling Kobe a stat padder.

It must be nice to be a stat padder, and a champion at the same time.

[kflo]

kobe has not been inefficient for most of his career.

and he is obviously truly great.

Most of his career without Shaq he was. I think he can't claim all-timey greatness because he spent his prime killing his teams and being served crushing defeats. Greats carry their teams and make them overachive and Kobe has never done that.

no, most of his career without shaq he's been an efficient and elite bulk scorer and playmaker. kobe's teams have always been among the top offensive teams in the league, regardless of who he was teamed with. the problem you have is how badly you represent the talent he was surrounded with when he was leading them to 45 and 42 wins, and what the sources of their problems were. they were bad defensively. in part because of your heroes like smush, or luke, or vlad, or cook. kobe's now been in 6 finals in 10 prime years, yet he has to prove he can elevate teams. you created a stat based on 40 point games, based on a 68% winning %, as a way to prove something AGAINST him? it's horrible analysis. you have your mind made up and invented a way to support your hypothesis.

[kflo]

seriously, fg% differential? ever hear of eFG% or ts%?

[SDChargers#1]

Let's look at some of Kobe's ex-teammates when playing with Kobe and without.

Smush Parker - EASILY the best numbers of his career with Kobe (career highs in FG%, ppg, 3P%, etc). Since, couldn't make the rotation on a 15 win Miami team, and is now out of the league.

Kwame Brown - Played some of his best basketball on the Lakers (career high in FG%). A career incompetent scorer, Kwame's FG% miraculously sky rocketed as a Laker.

Brian Cook - EASILY the best numbers of his career with Kobe (career highs in FG%, ppg). Averaged 45%+ FG% as a Lakers. Since leaving...38%....weird.

Lamar Odom - Career high FG% before joining lakers was 46%, averaging 43.5%. Since then has never shot under 46.8%, averaging 48.5%.

Pau Gasol - Before joining the Lakers averaged ~50% from the field. Since joining 58%.

The list continues, but I will stop there. It is pretty obvious that by Kobe drawing double teams he creates wide open looks for his teammates, even if he doesn't get credited with the assist every time.

Now look at players on Lebron's team, and you will notice the opposite. Career lows in FG%.

[indiefan23]

Stat is inaccurate because it doesn't take into account ball movement, and FG attempts based on score. Nor does it actually have any correlation to winning or player production.

Takes all those things into account by comparing to the average assists which normalize the data set with respect to all those things. The only variable that changes is the points scored. As stated, the regular fluctuation of the offense and teams are normalized giving a much clearer view of how, in the average playing context, scoring affects assists.